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Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Drop To Record Low, While Debt Concerns Rise: Stocks Fall, Gold Rise

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's July Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) revealed a sharp decline in medium-term inflation expectations, while short- and long-term expectations remained stable. However, the survey also underscored mounting concerns about household finances, particularly the rising risk of delinquency, as well as mixed labor market expectations, with respondents anticipating lower earnings growth and a reduced likelihood of finding a new job within three months if they were laid off. Key Findings From The Latest New York Fed’s Survey Of Consumer Expectations Inflation Expectations Trends: Short- and Long-Term Inflation Expectations: Median inflation expectations remained stable at 3% over a one-year horizon and 2.8% over a five-year horizon, showing no change from the previous month. Medium-Term Inflation Outlook: The standout finding was a sharp decline in the three-year-ahead inflation expectations, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points to 2.3%, the lowest since the survey began in June 2013. Expectations for gas prices fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%, and food prices edged down by 0.1 percentage point to 4.7%. However, expectations for other costs rose, including medical care (up 0.2 percentage points to 7.6%), college education (up 1.9 percentage points ...