It is tough to beat the stock market consistently, but one stock has done just that while also being one of the least volatile stocks in the S&P 500.

And home-and-auto insurer Progressive is poised to deliver solid returns to shareholders in the future, as well.

“Progressive may arguably be the least volatile stock in the S&P 500 that can deliver outsize stock performance,” wrote Josh Shanker, senior insurance analyst with BofA Securities, in a note.

While it is difficult for any stock to compete with Nvidia’s compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 69% over the past decade, he said, Progressive’s 25%-26% CAGR puts it in the top quintile of S&P 500 stocks of $100 billion or greater value.

But its beta—a measure of volatility, relative to an index—of 0.67 also puts it in the lowest quintile in terms of volatility. A beta of 1 means a stock’s price tends to move with the market, while a beta of less than 1 means it tends to be less volatile than the market.

“That daily volatility has only increasingly declined with time, showing a daily trading beta of just 0.21 over the past year,” the note said. “Were it not for [Eli Lily’s] incredible 148% run over the past year, Progressive would likely hold the crown for the S&P 500’s most efficient stock: most return with least volatility.”

Shanker, who has a Buy rating on the stock, upped his price target to $261.00 from $256.00. Progressive’s shares are currently trading around $188.00.

BofA said the S&P 500 is trading at 18.9 times 2025 consensus earnings per share, while Progressive trades at 17.7 times consensus numbers. Shanker said this is 31% too low and poised to materially rise.

While some believe Progressive’s shares have become too expensive, shares are trading in-line with its historical range on both absolute and relative-to-market multiples, according to BofA. 

The argument that 17.7 times 2025 consensus EPS is too much to pay for a stock such as Progressive is flawed for several reasons, BofA said.